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US Federal Debt Outstanding vs US Agriculture Value Added

US Federal Debt Outstanding and US Agriculture Value Added correlate at r = -0.58 over 25 years (1997–2021), p = 0.0025. With the time trend removed, r = +0.14. Interpret with caution.

Verdict: Interpret with caution. Much of the apparent link is driven by a shared time trend: r falls from -0.58 to 0.14 once the trend is removed.

Pearson r
-0.58
p-value
0.0025
Years compared (n)
25 (1997–2021)
95% confidence interval
-0.79 to -0.24
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.14

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.