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US Federal Debt Outstanding vs US Female Labor Force Participation

US Federal Debt Outstanding and US Female Labor Force Participation correlate at r = -0.58 over 36 years (1990–2025), p = 2.2e-4. With the time trend removed, r = -0.56. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = 2.2e-4) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = -0.56). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
-0.58
p-value
2.2e-4
Years compared (n)
36 (1990–2025)
95% confidence interval
-0.76 to -0.31
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.56

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.