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US Federal Debt Outstanding vs US Military Expenditure
US Federal Debt Outstanding and US Military Expenditure correlate at r = -0.63 over 65 years (1960–2024), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.50. Direction flips without the trend.
Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.63, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.50. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.
- Pearson r
- -0.63
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 65 (1960–2024)
- 95% confidence interval
- -0.75 to -0.45
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- +0.50
Sources
- US Federal Debt Outstanding (USD): U.S. Treasury. Total US federal debt outstanding at the end of each fiscal year (U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data).
- US Military Expenditure (% of GDP): World Bank. US Military Expenditure (World Bank indicator MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS).
Related pairs
- US Renewable Energy Share vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.99)
- US Wind Power Generation vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.99)
- US Federal Debt Outstanding vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.97)
- US Federal Debt Outstanding vs US GDP per Capita (r = +0.95)
- Atmospheric Methane (global) vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.95)
- US Natural Gas Consumption vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.94)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.