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US Federal Debt Outstanding vs US Net Migration
US Federal Debt Outstanding and US Net Migration correlate at r = +0.57 over 66 years (1960–2025), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = -0.26. Likely spurious (shared time trend).
Verdict: Likely spurious (shared time trend). Both series mostly just trend over time. After removing that trend the correlation collapses to -0.26 — the relationship is probably coincidental, not causal.
- Pearson r
- +0.57
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 66 (1960–2025)
- 95% confidence interval
- 0.38 to 0.72
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- -0.26
Sources
- US Federal Debt Outstanding (USD): U.S. Treasury. Total US federal debt outstanding at the end of each fiscal year (U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data).
- US Net Migration (people): World Bank. US Net Migration (World Bank indicator SM.POP.NETM).
Related pairs
- US Renewable Energy Share vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.99)
- US Wind Power Generation vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.99)
- US Federal Debt Outstanding vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.97)
- US Federal Debt Outstanding vs US GDP per Capita (r = +0.95)
- Atmospheric Methane (global) vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.95)
- US Natural Gas Consumption vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.94)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.