US Federal Debt Outstanding vs US Secondary School Enrollment

US Federal Debt Outstanding and US Secondary School Enrollment correlate at r = +0.61 over 35 years (1971–2022), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = -0.41. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is 0.61, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes -0.41. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r: +0.61
p-value: < 0.0001
Years compared (n): 35 (1971–2022)
95% confidence interval: 0.35 to 0.79
Correlation with the time trend removed: -0.41

Sources

US Federal Debt Outstanding (USD): U.S. Treasury. Total US federal debt outstanding at the end of each fiscal year (U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data).
US Secondary School Enrollment (% gross): World Bank. US Secondary School Enrollment (World Bank indicator SE.SEC.ENRR).

Related pairs

US Renewable Energy Share vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.99)
US Wind Power Generation vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.99)
US Federal Debt Outstanding vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.97)
US Federal Debt Outstanding vs US GDP per Capita (r = +0.95)
Atmospheric Methane (global) vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.95)
US Natural Gas Consumption vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.94)

Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.