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US Agriculture Value Added vs US Birth Rate

US Agriculture Value Added and US Birth Rate correlate at r = +0.54 over 25 years (1997–2021), p = 0.0053. With the time trend removed, r = -0.17. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = 0.0053) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = -0.17). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
+0.54
p-value
0.0053
Years compared (n)
25 (1997–2021)
95% confidence interval
0.19 to 0.77
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.17

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.