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US Birth Rate vs US Death Rate

US Birth Rate and US Death Rate correlate at r = +0.35 over 65 years (1960–2024), p = 0.0047. With the time trend removed, r = +0.01. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = 0.0047) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = 0.01). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
+0.35
p-value
0.0047
Years compared (n)
65 (1960–2024)
95% confidence interval
0.11 to 0.54
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.01

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.