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US Birth Rate vs US Female Labor Force Participation

US Birth Rate and US Female Labor Force Participation correlate at r = +0.40 over 35 years (1990–2024), p = 0.018. With the time trend removed, r = -0.02. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = 0.018) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = -0.02). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
+0.40
p-value
0.018
Years compared (n)
35 (1990–2024)
95% confidence interval
0.07 to 0.64
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.02

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.