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US Birth Rate vs US Secondary School Enrollment
US Birth Rate and US Secondary School Enrollment correlate at r = -0.49 over 35 years (1971–2022), p = 0.0029. With the time trend removed, r = +0.61. Direction flips without the trend.
Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.49, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.61. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.
- Pearson r
- -0.49
- p-value
- 0.0029
- Years compared (n)
- 35 (1971–2022)
- 95% confidence interval
- -0.71 to -0.19
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- +0.61
Sources
- US Birth Rate (per 1,000 people): World Bank. US Birth Rate (World Bank indicator SP.DYN.CBRT.IN).
- US Secondary School Enrollment (% gross): World Bank. US Secondary School Enrollment (World Bank indicator SE.SEC.ENRR).
Related pairs
- Atmospheric Methane (global) vs US Birth Rate (r = -0.95)
- US Adult Obesity vs US Birth Rate (r = -0.93)
- US Adolescent Birth Rate vs US Birth Rate (r = +0.92)
- US Birth Rate vs US Resident Patent Applications (r = -0.92)
- US Fertility Rate vs US Birth Rate (r = +0.91)
- US Birth Rate vs US R&D Expenditure (r = -0.91)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.