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US Exports vs US Inflation Rate

US Exports and US Inflation Rate correlate at r = -0.38 over 55 years (1970–2024), p = 0.0043. With the time trend removed, r = +0.22. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = 0.0043) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = 0.22). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
-0.38
p-value
0.0043
Years compared (n)
55 (1970–2024)
95% confidence interval
-0.59 to -0.13
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.22

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.