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US Exports vs US Bank Lending Interest Rate

US Exports and US Bank Lending Interest Rate correlate at r = -0.44 over 52 years (1970–2021), p = 0.0010. With the time trend removed, r = +0.27. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = 0.0010) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = 0.27). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
-0.44
p-value
0.0010
Years compared (n)
52 (1970–2021)
95% confidence interval
-0.64 to -0.19
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.27

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.