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US Gross Savings vs US Unemployment Rate

US Gross Savings and US Unemployment Rate correlate at r = -0.55 over 34 years (1991–2024), p = 7.8e-4. With the time trend removed, r = -0.61. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = 7.8e-4) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = -0.61). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
-0.55
p-value
7.8e-4
Years compared (n)
34 (1991–2024)
95% confidence interval
-0.75 to -0.26
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.61

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.