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US Inflation Rate vs US Bank Lending Interest Rate

US Inflation Rate and US Bank Lending Interest Rate correlate at r = +0.73 over 62 years (1960–2021), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.70. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = < 0.0001) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = 0.70). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
+0.73
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
62 (1960–2021)
95% confidence interval
0.59 to 0.83
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.70

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.