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Tokyo Average Temperature vs US Fertility Rate
Tokyo Average Temperature and US Fertility Rate correlate at r = -0.26 over 64 years (1960–2023), p = 0.037. With the time trend removed, r = +0.38. Direction flips without the trend.
Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.26, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.38. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.
- Pearson r
- -0.26
- p-value
- 0.037
- Years compared (n)
- 64 (1960–2023)
- 95% confidence interval
- -0.48 to -0.02
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- +0.38
Sources
- Tokyo Average Temperature (°C): Open-Meteo (ERA5). Annual mean 2m air temperature for Tokyo from the ERA5 reanalysis.
- US Fertility Rate (children per woman): Our World in Data. US Fertility Rate (Our World in Data: Total fertility rate).
Related pairs
- US Fertility Rate vs US Birth Rate (r = +0.91)
- US Fertility Rate vs US R&D Expenditure (r = -0.89)
- US Fertility Rate vs US Annual Working Hours per Worker (r = +0.87)
- US Dollar to British Pound vs US Fertility Rate (r = -0.86)
- Tokyo Average Temperature vs Atmospheric Methane (global) (r = +0.86)
- US Fertility Rate vs US Wind Power Generation (r = -0.86)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.