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US Fertility Rate vs Sunspot Number

US Fertility Rate and Sunspot Number correlate at r = +0.25 over 91 years (1933–2023), p = 0.016. With the time trend removed, r = +0.15. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = 0.016) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = 0.15). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
+0.25
p-value
0.016
Years compared (n)
91 (1933–2023)
95% confidence interval
0.05 to 0.44
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.15

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.