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US Fertility Rate vs US Female Labor Force Participation

US Fertility Rate and US Female Labor Force Participation correlate at r = +0.62 over 34 years (1990–2023), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.56. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = < 0.0001) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = 0.56). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
+0.62
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
34 (1990–2023)
95% confidence interval
0.36 to 0.79
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.56

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.