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US Fertility Rate vs US Inflation Rate

US Fertility Rate and US Inflation Rate correlate at r = -0.29 over 64 years (1960–2023), p = 0.021. With the time trend removed, r = -0.65. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = 0.021) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = -0.65). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
-0.29
p-value
0.021
Years compared (n)
64 (1960–2023)
95% confidence interval
-0.50 to -0.05
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.65

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.