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US Bank Lending Interest Rate vs US Youth Unemployment

US Bank Lending Interest Rate and US Youth Unemployment correlate at r = -0.44 over 31 years (1991–2021), p = 0.014. With the time trend removed, r = -0.69. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = 0.014) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = -0.69). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
-0.44
p-value
0.014
Years compared (n)
31 (1991–2021)
95% confidence interval
-0.68 to -0.10
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.69

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.