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Arctic Sea Ice Extent (September) vs US Birth Rate
Arctic Sea Ice Extent (September) and US Birth Rate correlate at r = +0.84 over 46 years (1979–2024), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = -0.10. Likely spurious (shared time trend).
Verdict: Likely spurious (shared time trend). Both series mostly just trend over time. After removing that trend the correlation collapses to -0.10 — the relationship is probably coincidental, not causal.
- Pearson r
- +0.84
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 46 (1979–2024)
- 95% confidence interval
- 0.73 to 0.91
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- -0.10
Sources
- Arctic Sea Ice Extent (September) (million km²): NSIDC. Mean Arctic sea ice extent in September, the yearly minimum (NSIDC Sea Ice Index).
- US Birth Rate (per 1,000 people): World Bank. US Birth Rate (World Bank indicator SP.DYN.CBRT.IN).
Related pairs
- Atmospheric Methane (global) vs US Birth Rate (r = -0.95)
- US Adult Obesity vs US Birth Rate (r = -0.93)
- US Adolescent Birth Rate vs US Birth Rate (r = +0.92)
- US Birth Rate vs US Resident Patent Applications (r = -0.92)
- Arctic Sea Ice Extent (September) vs US Mobile Subscriptions (r = -0.92)
- Arctic Sea Ice Extent (September) vs US Resident Patent Applications (r = -0.91)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.